{"id":286,"date":"2024-11-20T03:31:40","date_gmt":"2024-11-20T03:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/?p=286"},"modified":"2024-11-20T03:31:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T03:31:40","slug":"jk-rinkimu-strategai-kritikuoja-netikslius-rinkeju-tyrimus-politico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/?p=286","title":{"rendered":"JK rinkim\u0173 strategai kritikuoja \u201enetikslius\u201c rink\u0117j\u0173 tyrimus \u2013 POLITICO"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Kai kurie pramon\u0117s specialistai sutinka, kad politin\u0117s apklausos nepavyko ir turi b\u016bti patikrinta realybe. Pavyzd\u017eiui, \u0161\u012f m\u0117nes\u012f vykusiuose JAV prezidento rinkimuose apklaus\u0173 vykdytojai nepakankamai \u012fvertino Donaldo Trumpo balsavim\u0105 \u2013 kaip ir 2016 m., ir 2020 m. <\/p>\n<p>B\u016bsimoje knygoje apra\u0161omas pla\u010diai paplit\u0119s nerimas ir gilus pyktis buvusio tori\u0173 lyderio Rishi Sunak vidiniame rate d\u0117l to, kaip rinkimai dominavo nacionaliniuose debatuose prie\u0161 JK rinkimus. <\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Klysti<\/h3>\n<p>Viena vertus, apklaus\u0173 antra\u0161t\u0117je nurodytas bals\u0173 pasidalijimo rezultatas buvo labai klaidingas, o klaida buvo u\u017emaskuota tuo, kad bendras rezultatas \u2013 leiborist\u0173 pergal\u0117 \u2013 buvo ai\u0161kus. Vietoj 20 ta\u0161k\u0173 prana\u0161umo leiboristams prie\u0161 torius, kaip nuolat si\u016bl\u0117 apklausos, rinkimai laim\u0117jo perpus tiek, o leiboristai surinko 34 procentus bals\u0173, o toriai \u2013 24 procentus. <\/p>\n<p>Austral\u0173 strategas Levido, \u0161iemet vykd\u0119s konservatori\u0173 kampanij\u0105 ir s\u0117kming\u0105 Boriso Johnsono rinkim\u0173 kampanij\u0105 2019 metais, sak\u0117, kad at\u0117jo metas reformoms. <\/p>\n<p>\u201eNesigin\u010diju, kad neb\u016btume pralaim\u0117j\u0119\u201c, \u2013 knygoje paskelbtame interviu sak\u0117 Levido. \u201eTa\u010diau apklaus\u0173 netikslumas ir \u017einiasklaidos prane\u0161imai apie jas vaidina vis didesn\u012f vaidmen\u012f rinkim\u0173 kampanijose. Atvirai kalbant, apklausoms skiriama per daug d\u0117mesio, palyginti su tinkamomis politin\u0117mis diskusijomis, ir tai daro didel\u0119 \u012ftak\u0105 rink\u0117j\u0173 elgesiui. <\/p>\n<p>\u201eNesu tikras, ar realu u\u017edrausti apklausas visam kampanijos laikotarpiui, bet tikrai manau, kad tam tikras u\u017etemimas per paskutines kelias savaites, kaip tai daro kai kurios kitos \u0161alys, b\u016bt\u0173 sveika. Kitose \u0161alyse per paskutines dvi ar tris kampanijos dienas taip pat nutr\u016bksta televizijos reklama.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script>\n\t\tpl_facebook_pixel_args = ();\n\t\tpl_facebook_pixel_args.userAgent = navigator.userAgent;\n\t\tpl_facebook_pixel_args.language = navigator.language;\n\t\tif ( document.referrer.indexOf( document.domain ) < 0 ) {\n\t\t\tpl_facebook_pixel_args.referrer = document.referrer;\n\t\t}\n\n\t\t!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)\n\t\t{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?\n\t\tn.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};\n\t\tif(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';\n\t\tn.queue=();t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;\n\t\tt.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)(0);\n\t\ts.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script',\n\t\t'https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/fbevents.js');\n\n\t\tfbq( 'consent', 'revoke' );\n\t\tfbq( 'init', \"394368290733607\" );\n\t\tfbq( 'track', 'PageView', pl_facebook_pixel_args );\n\n\t\tif ( typeof window.__tcfapi !== 'undefined' ) {\n\t\t\twindow.__tcfapi( 'addEventListener', 2, function( tcData, listenerSuccess ) {\n\t\t\t\tif ( listenerSuccess ) {\n\t\t\t\t\tif ( tcData.eventStatus === 'useractioncomplete' || tcData.eventStatus === 'tcloaded' ) {\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t__tcfapi( 'getCustomVendorConsents', 2, function( vendorConsents, success ) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tif ( ! vendorConsents.hasOwnProperty( 'consentedPurposes' ) ) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\treturn;\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tconst consents = vendorConsents.consentedPurposes.filter(\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tfunction( vendorConsents ) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\treturn 'Create profiles for personalised advertising' === vendorConsents.name;\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t);\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tif ( consents.length === 1 ) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tfbq( 'consent', 'grant' );\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\t\t\t} );\n\t\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t});\n\t\t}\n\t\t<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/ban-polls-uk-election-strategists-slam-inaccurate-voter-surveys-morgan-mcsweeney-keir-starmer-isaac-levido\/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&#038;utm_medium=RSS&#038;utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kai kurie pramon\u0117s specialistai sutinka, kad politin\u0117s apklausos nepavyko ir turi b\u016bti patikrinta realybe. Pavyzd\u017eiui, \u0161\u012f m\u0117nes\u012f vykusiuose JAV prezidento rinkimuose apklaus\u0173 vykdytojai nepakankamai \u012fvertino [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":287,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[183],"tags":[824,825,257,826,410,823,827],"class_list":["post-286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europos-politines-naujienos","tag-kritikuoja","tag-netikslius","tag-politico","tag-rinkeju","tag-rinkimu","tag-strategai","tag-tyrimus"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/respublikosinfo.lt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}